Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.007843 0.008844 0.009927 0.011184 0.012605 0.014162 0.015998
2026-01-04 0.006317 0.007708 0.009336 0.011384 0.013894 0.016875 0.020691
2026-01-11 0.005497 0.007083 0.009043 0.011649 0.015028 0.019272 0.025027
2026-01-18 0.004784 0.006443 0.008586 0.011566 0.015613 0.020936 0.028501
2026-01-25 0.004264 0.005966 0.008252 0.011555 0.016226 0.022620 0.032088
2026-02-01 0.003790 0.005486 0.007843 0.011369 0.016537 0.023870 0.035134
2026-02-08 0.003474 0.005186 0.007642 0.011436 0.017182 0.025607 0.038997
2026-02-15 0.003162 0.004858 0.007361 0.011343 0.017557 0.026953 0.042362
2026-02-22 0.002978 0.004700 0.007311 0.011582 0.018443 0.029118 0.047155
2026-03-01 0.002677 0.004330 0.006901 0.011216 0.018332 0.029703 0.049455
2026-03-08 0.002446 0.004051 0.006607 0.011001 0.018434 0.030618 0.052344
2026-03-15 0.002225 0.003768 0.006281 0.010701 0.018360 0.031221 0.054735
2026-03-22 0.002148 0.003721 0.006345 0.011071 0.019465 0.033916 0.061035
2026-03-29 0.002046 0.003624 0.006315 0.011276 0.020301 0.036217 0.066849
2026-04-05 0.001963 0.003552 0.006320 0.011538 0.021252 0.038789 0.073377
2026-04-12 0.001834 0.003385 0.006144 0.011456 0.021562 0.040216 0.077868
2026-04-19 0.001727 0.003251 0.006015 0.011445 0.022000 0.041906 0.082999
2026-04-26 0.001606 0.003080 0.005804 0.011262 0.022087 0.042929 0.086894
2026-05-03 0.001528 0.002984 0.005727 0.011328 0.022664 0.044938 0.092941
2026-05-10 0.001436 0.002856 0.005576 0.011235 0.022912 0.046310 0.097787
2026-05-17 0.001390 0.002813 0.005589 0.011472 0.023847 0.049137 0.105937
2026-05-24 0.001282 0.002635 0.005320 0.011109 0.023506 0.049305 0.108370
2026-05-31 0.001197 0.002502 0.005131 0.010897 0.023463 0.050088 0.112209